"Comrade Guoxing is right, we have noticed this issue. Now the financial market is mainly composed of the GEM and venture capital, the third board market, the property trading market, the bond market, the stock index futures, the foreign exchange market, and there are banks, insurance, investment banks, interest rate markets, real estate markets, etc. For investors, the establishment of a multi-level financial market will provide us with a richer investment variety and fundamentally solve the problem of the overly single investment variety and investment channels of the people. This means that investors will have more investment opportunities and more diverse investment styles. The core issues of our country's financial market will face a major change, and it will also prompt our country's financial policies to make timely adjustments."

Vice Premier Hou is worthy of studying finance. When talking about this issue, he said: "I think this change is a problem of finding new balance points in the real estate market, stock market, banks, foreign exchange market, bond market, interest rate market, and futures market. Multi-level markets, diversified styles, and any market imbalance may bring huge risks to the entire financial system. Therefore, this is the fundamental reason for my country's financial problems for a long time in the future."

One of them is an economics and the other is an finance. They have a lot of common points in this regard. If we really discuss it in depth, we will not be able to talk about it in a few days. But today Mu Guoxing came to visit Vice Premier Hou, not to conduct academic discussions, but to have other purposes. While Vice Premier Hou was drinking tea, Mu Guoxing said: "Premier Hou, I came to you today mainly to communicate with you about bank credit issues."

"Oh, what are Comrade Guoxing's opinions?" Vice Premier Hou put down the teacup and continued: "I have long wanted to communicate with you on this issue."

Mu Guoxing said: "The rise in housing prices in my country has accelerated significantly in recent years, and the real estate market is clearly showing signs of overheating, especially in the year before the Economic and Financial Storm. The increase in real estate loans of commercial banks has reached 76% in new loans, and housing prices in some cities have even risen sharply in double-digit levels, which has attracted our high attention."

Vice Premier Hou did not speak, listened silently, and then Mu Guoxing said: "As time goes by, the economic adjustment cycle under continuous macro-control has become clearer and clearer. The prerequisites that previously supported high growth in real estate are gradually disappearing, and the objective foundation that carries the rapid expansion of real estate credit in commercial banks no longer exists. For this trend change, commercial banks should be highly vigilant about the systemic risks that the real estate market enters a downward channel, which may lead to."

Mu Guoxing took out a document and said: "This is a report sent by the Beijing Municipal Government. According to the situation they have learned, the problem is still very serious. Now the loan ratio of real estate in commercial banks has reached more than 80 yuan, which is very rare worldwide and violates the laws of economic development. Once the real estate economic bubble bursts, the damage to our country's economic development will be fatal."

"What good ideas does Comrade Guoxing have in this regard?"

"Strictly control the support of commercial banks for real estate credit, and adopt a series of strong measures to reduce the proportion of real estate loans."

Vice Premier Hou nodded. He knew that what Mu Guoxing said was an existence fact. If the central government strictly rectified the real estate market, it would inevitably lead to a comprehensive decline in housing prices, thereby increasing the risks of banks. In this way, the risk defense line set by banks with collateral will inevitably withstand severe tests. The root of all this is that in recent years, domestic commercial banks' loans to real estate companies have grown rapidly, and the proportion of the entire loan is also increasing rapidly.

As of the current situation, the mainstream of real estate loan is land mortgage loans. The rapid decline in land prices will inevitably lead to the decline in the value of land mortgages. This not only completely exposes the bank's credit risk, but also infinitely amplifies the bank's credit risk. For example, when a piece of land is at a high level, the assessed market value is 100 million yuan, and the bank's risk is priced at 6o. In this way, real estate developers can obtain a loan of 6o000 yuan from the bank. However, when the price of land drops by 5o, the mortgage value of this land is only 3o00,000 yuan, and then the risk of bank credit is completely exposed.

Recently, some people have claimed that if the central government strictly rectifies the real estate market, housing prices will inevitably fall. Once the risks in the real estate market are released, banks are the first to die, not real estate companies. This sentence contains the following meanings. First, only with the support of bank credit can real estate be able to flourish. Banks must not reduce their support for real estate, because real estate and banks have long been tied together. Any withdrawal of any bank support will be the bank itself.

Second, although there is a serious bubble in the domestic real estate market at present, banks' support for the real estate industry cannot be reduced. Otherwise, the decline in housing prices will definitely cause a bank crisis first, and the bank crisis will lead to a financial crisis and an economic crisis.

From the current bank credit risk of real estate, it includes two aspects. On the one hand, it is the bank credit risk of real estate opening. The regulatory authorities have a strict market access system for real estate developers to lend to banks. For example, the own funds of real estate developers must be above 35, otherwise it is impossible to obtain bank loans; pre-sale of real estate housing can only be carried out after the construction house is topped off.

On the other hand, the credit risk of personal mortgage loans in real estate. The state also has strict regulations on this. Unfortunately, due to the short development time of the domestic real estate market, the incomplete system and regulations, bank credit risk management defects are everywhere. In addition, the interests and other aspects, banks are now afraid and unwilling to withdraw from the real estate industry and take the initiative to respond to the national regulations, thus posing a very big hidden danger.

Vice Premier Hou is also very clear that the decline in housing prices has a great impact on domestic commercial banks. Real estate developers are the first to be hit hard. The main purpose of real estate developers to push banks to the front desk is to hope that the government will not change the current real estate policies and financial policies, nor to implement a tight monetary policy. Everyone knows that if this is the case, then my country's real estate market will return to the old path. This is actually a game between the central government and many real estate developers. In addition, local governments at all levels have contributed to the fire due to land sales finance, making the situation of the entire country's real estate market more and more confusing.

In the modern economic and social society, the government's sole purpose of administrative orders is simply not feasible. It is necessary to fully utilize the leverage of banks and taxes. In order to cool down the national real estate market, the role of banks is undoubtedly crucial.

"Comrade Guoxing, please talk about what we need to do."

"Strictly controlling the credit support of banks for the real estate industry is to raise the credit threshold for some real estate developers with insufficient funds. At least strictly restrict the use of land for mortgage loans. As for other issues, we can only take it slowly."

Vice Premier Hou understood that Mu Guoxing was giving these real estate developers a trick to remove the money. Using land mortgage loans is the best way for real estate developers to solve the problem. The method they usually use is to first use relatively small funds to buy a piece of land, and then use various operations to increase the prices of surrounding real estate. In the end, the appraisal price of the land they are in hand will be far higher than the previous transfer price.

At this time, developers can use this land to mortgage loans through a series of operations, and the loans are often several times or even dozens of times higher than the original land transfer price. In this way, real estate developers have money in their hands, and can use built buildings to borrow money from banks, and can also use pre-sales to recover large amounts of funds.

The final result is that the prices of buildings are getting higher and higher, and developers only need to take out very little funds to achieve the goal of making huge profits. Once the rectification of the real estate market begins, the prices of buildings will fall, and the damage will be the banks in the end, which will inevitably bring huge disasters to the country's immature financial market.
Chapter completed!