Chapter 269: Think Tank

Fan Wubing's days in Beijing have been very fulfilling or busy.

On the one hand, the officials in Beijing attached great importance to him, and the more they talked about such things, it seemed to be contagious. Even Boss Zhu invited him over and had in-depth discussions on some economic issues, and both sides benefited a lot.

Fan Wubing's advantage lies in knowing the various situations in the next ten years and seeing the economic trends and international and domestic situations very clearly. Some of the information feedback from Boss Zhu made him clearly understand where the domestic reform process is now stuck and what he should do so that he can maximize his interests without causing dissatisfaction from the top leaders.

"The domestic economic situation is still easy to control. The biggest problem is the pressure of the international situation." Boss Zhu said.

Fan Wubing nodded, knowing that Boss Zhu's words mean something.

For China's economy to develop, it must first be formally integrated into the world economy, the big family of the world economy. In other words, it must first join the Organization of Tariffs and Trade and restore China's status as a contracting party.

The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade is a multilateral international agreement concluded between governments on tariffs and trade rules. Its purpose is to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers, eliminate differential treatment in international trade, promote international trade liberalization, and make full use of world resources and expand the production and circulation of commodities.

In the 1930s and 1940s, world trade protectionism prevailed, and mutual restrictions on international trade were an important reason for the world economic depression. Therefore, after the end of World War II, in order to solve complex international economic problems, especially to formulate international trade policies, it became an important task faced by countries after the war.

In order to build a trinity structure of "monetary-financial-trade" that influences the world economy, the Bretton Woods Conference was held in 1944, and it was planned to establish an international trade organization while establishing the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Although the Havana Charter signed by the United Nations Trade and Employment Conference in 1947 agreed to establish the WTO, due to the opposition of the United States, the WTO still died.

In the same year, the United States initiated the formulation of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), as a temporary contract for promoting trade liberalization. According to the original idea, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade would soon be replaced by a specialized United Nations agency called the International Trade Organization (ito). However, this international trade organization has never been formed, and over the past few decades, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade has achieved great success in promoting world trade liberalization.

China is also one of the founding members of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, and participated in the negotiations and signing of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. In 1950, the Taiwan authorities announced their withdrawal from the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. Due to historical reasons at that time, the current government has not immediately participated in the activities of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade or maintained contact with it. To this day, China's status as a founding member in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade has not yet been restored.

According to the recognized principles of international law, the replacement of a country's government should not affect the international treaty obligations undertaken by the country and the international treaty rights enjoyed, that is, the Chinese government should enjoy all rights of the contracting party.

"Americans are very troublesome." Boss Zhu is directly responsible for the Sino-US negotiations. When he thinks of the arrogant Americans at the negotiating table, he feels a little upset.

Reform and opening up first means market opening, but in this case, the market in mainland China obviously cannot get the corresponding rights of the free market. That is to say, if foreigners do not recognize China's market economy, Chinese export companies will naturally not be treated fairly.

In July 1986, China formally applied to restore China's status as a party in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. In February 1987, China formally submitted a memorandum of China's foreign trade system to the General Agreement Council. In March, the General Agreement Council decided to establish a working group on China. China began a long road to reopening customs. In June 1988, China issued an invitation to the Parties to the General Agreement to negotiate tariff concessions. At the seventh meeting of the Working Group the following year, the State party completed the

Assessment of China's foreign trade system. The fifth round of bilateral consultations on the resumption of customs between China and the United States was held in Beijing. The consultations made substantial progress and the resumption of customs negotiations are expected to end at the end of the year. In December of the same year, the eighth meeting of the China Working Group for the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade was held in Geneva, and in fact, the deliberation of China's foreign trade system was restarted. On New Year's Day 1990, the Taiwanese authorities applied to join the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade in the name of separate customs areas of Taiwan, Penghu, Jin and Malaysia, which brought variables to the negotiations.

Boss Zhu said to Fan Wubing with some emotion, "This month, the Chairman of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade will issue a statement on the issue of handling Taiwan's accession to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade based on the understanding reached between China and the major contracting parties, which basically reflects the three principles of the Chinese government on handling Taiwan's entry into the customs. The market access memorandum between China and the United States may also be reached as soon as possible. China's path to entry into the customs has finally seen some dawn. It has been six years since we started."

Fan Wubing thought of the always-stumbling WTO negotiations, which will not be settled until 2,000 years, and couldn't help but say, "Six years are probably not enough. According to the Americans' temperament, at least eight years will be needed to get results."

Boss Zhu asked in surprise, "Is this true?"

Fan Wubing curled his lips and said, "It's very likely."

"Why did you have such a judgment?" Boss Zhu asked with a frown.

It would be fine if someone else said this, but from Fan Wubing's mouth, he had to pay attention, so he wanted Fan Wubing to explain the reason seriously.

Fan Wubing accidentally said history and regretted it, but he still had to take a break. So after thinking about it, he said, "Now the Americans are about to have an election. According to my analysis, Bill Clinton of the Democratic Party will defeat George Bush and replace him in the White House. Clinton is only forty-six years old at this time. With his talent, it is crucial to the recovery of the US economy. Therefore, if nothing unexpected happens, it is not a problem to be re-elected for two terms. Sino-US economic relations will be one of his most important trump cards, so the mystery will not be solved too early, but it is impossible not to end this problem in his hands. That is why I concluded that the negotiation will take at least eight years to discuss, which is when Clinton's second presidential term is about to expire."

After hearing Fan Wubing's inference, Boss Zhu was speechless. He never expected that Fan Wubing would have such an association of calculations. It was really amazing to calculate the time limit for China's entry and exit negotiations from the US presidential election alone! Although this matter may not be reliable and may not be accurate, Fan Wubing's calculation method undoubtedly provided him with a new reference direction.

Even when Americans are not prepared, no matter how well Chinese are prepared, it is useless.

"You are so unfavorable to George Bush's re-election?" Boss Zhu asked curiously. In his opinion, how could Fan Wubing be so sure that many international experts cannot understand?

Fan Wubing smiled and said, "The United States has always been a consortium politics. Whoever can stimulate the healthy development of the US economy will have the opportunity to enter the White House. This is generally the case. Although George Bush seems to have built military industry overseas, it is far from enough for the fat people to be the arms dealers and oil tycoons. The military force brings Americans not the rapid economic growth. Consortiums and voters who cannot taste the sweetness will not agree with this kind of personal heroism. His resignation is a destined thing. So I can be sure that Bush must have suffered a crushing defeat in the election this time, so he himself cannot believe it!"

Boss Zhu smiled and said, "Anyway, it's only been more than a month since the US election. After looking at the results, you will know if you are right. However, the analysis process is so unique, I hope you can be a think tank."

Fan Wubing waved his hand quickly and said, "Don't mention this, I'm too lazy to use that brain! When something big happens, I can help you analyze the situation. For ordinary things, don't blame me for being lazy."

Fan Wubing's skills did not object or agree to this. He simply vaguely stated that he could provide some reference for the central government's decision-making at the appropriate time, but did not tie himself to death.

Boss Zhu is a smart person, so of course he can't think that Fan Wubing will put aside a lot of his business to do free labor. It would be quite good if he could get this answer.

In fact, it is not necessarily the experts in the Political Research Office who are interested in developing the economy. The role he can play is comparable to the writing style of a large number of experts who only know how to talk about it on paper.

What's more, under the current situation of reform and opening up, there are basically no ready-made theories to learn from. Experts who study theory all day long can barely have some effect when making government reports or providing theoretical basis. In fact, they are also confused about the direction of society's progress. After all, not everyone is reborn like Fan Wubing.

During dinner, Fan Wubing invited Boss Zhu to have a meal together, which was located in a more famous popular restaurant in Beijing.

The dishes here are many and the prices are reasonable. More importantly, Fan Wubing knew that Boss Zhu was more concerned about people's livelihood and did not like too arrogant occasions, so he chose this place specifically. However, the two of them chose a corner and found a problem when they started drinking tea and waiting for dishes.
Chapter completed!