Subtitle of this chapter: Want to watch Economics? Isn’t this just Coming?

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Yes, what should I talk about when I went to the American Economics Society?

Our Master Yuan felt a little confused after answering this call, and had dinner with the three great Arcana.

After sending them away, the freshly released doctoral in economics locked himself in the study, lit his beloved Cuban cigar, and remembered the big thing of pretending.

The reason why economics has become the most prominent academic in the 20th century is that human economic activities have become so complex that they have to rely on special theoretical guidance.

The reason why the 20th century was so messy was that economic theory could not keep up with the international economic development situation.

In fact, this is the norm of human civilization. Human beings have to cross the river by feeling the stones, because there is no time traveler with hindsight in this world.

There are significant differences between natural sciences and humanities in this regard.

After natural science is "thinking", just pick up paper and pen to calculate the orbit of the planet, or climb onto a high tower and throw two iron balls, one big and one small, down, or catch a bunch of fruit flies to breed and play.

After the humanities "think" out, once an experiment is conducted, it will at least make a political entity bankrupt, and at worst, it will turn the whole world into a sea of ​​blood.

From this perspective, Yuan Yanshu, a master's degree in economics who is familiar with the history of Western economics and world history, is really "very afraid of being afraid". You should know that the history he studied was written by all mankind with bones as his pen and blood as his ink.

For time travelers like him, whether they make money or not is a small CASE that is not even considered a CASE. Whether to cause trouble or not is the big CASE that he has to care about.

The 1920s was another very critical time point. Pay attention, this time point is very critical for economists.

If our Master Yuan had worn it ten years ago, the First World War would have been on the string and would have to be fired.

The French-German contradictions in the fight for hegemony between Western Europe and Central Europe, and the Russian-Austrian contradictions in the Balkans, and whether the British-German contradictions in Europe can maintain the balance of power in Europe, the three major contradictions that triggered the World War cannot be eliminated by simply economic means.

Even if he had the dragon-slaying technique, he could not use it. Of course, he, a Cyrius, would not be full and would be overwhelmed with the affairs of Euro dad. Euro is not his real father.

If he had worn it ten years late, he would not have time to stop the outbreak of the Great Depression. By then, all major countries around the world would have no time to take care of themselves, so he would have to treat his head and feet.

World War II was actually inevitable. Of course, he, a Cyrius, had to bite the bullet and find a way to support the Communist Party.

It was different in 1921. For nearly seven or eight years, he had both ways to weaken the impact of the Great Depression and strengthen the power of the Great Depression.

It is unknown whether World War II will be achieved. Because the second-year patients with "I like war" are a minority after all.

If the latter goal is achieved, it is unknown whether there will be World War II. Because old Europe may not be completely reborn until World War II.

Going back to the previous question, Yuan Yanshu would naturally talk about the issue that is most concerned about in the economics community at present.

So, besides the dispute over capital and society, what other problems can make him pretend to be a big shot?

Three words, gold standard!

In fact, from an economic perspective, the most profound impact of World War I on human history was the first collapse of the gold standard.

Note that this "gold standard" does not refer to a country's monetary system, but here refers to an international monetary settlement system formed from 1880 to 1913.

During this period, the capitalist powers of Britain, the United States, Germany, the Netherlands, some Nordic countries and Latin currency unions (composed of France, Italy, Belgium and Switzerland) all implemented the purest gold standard system - the gold coin standard system, which gave international trade a basis for smooth progress.

The gold coin standard system uses gold as the only reserve, and only gold has unlimited legal compensation. Whether it is the "bank notes (real banknotes)" issued by central banks or private banks, including silver, copper and other metal or non-metallic auxiliary coins, they can be exchanged for gold without restrictions.

During this heyday of the gold standard, gold was the most important international reserve asset for all countries. The pound was the most important international liquidation method. Gold and pound became recognized international reserves by all countries at the same time.

The reason why the British pound is so awesome is that Niu Niu was so awesome at that time. Therefore, an international gold standard centered on gold and pounds was formed, which some people call it the Sterling Exchange Standard System.

Then a war broke out, and countries, including the Empire of Sun-Down, stopped exchange of bank notes for gold and banned the export of gold.

During the war, countries implemented a free floating exchange rate system, with fierce exchange rates fluctuating, and the stability of the international monetary system no longer existed. Therefore, the gold coin standard was declared to end.

So after World War I, a problem arose: Without the international currency settlement system, how can countries do business?

Well, in fact, it is still a small problem for everyone to not do business. If you don’t do it, then don’t do it. It just so happens that non-tariff barriers can be built according to the tradition of mercantilism, thereby protecting the industry and agriculture of various countries.

This is why America fell into a "small depression" between 1920 and 1921.

However, after losing the "currency anchor" of gold, inflation in various countries inevitably intensifies. This problem becomes big. Inflation will trigger a red revolution.

Currency inflation in various countries is linked to the German-Austrian war compensation. This problem is not only bigger but also more complicated.

After talking for a long time, I talked about the two major real problems faced by economists around the world in 1921:

First, rebuild the gold standard system.

Second, sort out the war reparations of the Allies.

These two major problems also come with a small problem. Since we cannot defeat the Soviet Union, we can simply drag the Soviet Union back to the capitalist international system.

Whether it is Mises or Keynes, a major European economist is now busy with these things.

Compared to these things, the editorial battle in the capital is just an academic dispute.

So in 1922 there were two important economic conferences, one was the Genoa conference held in Italy in the spring, and the other was the Geneva conference held in Switzerland in the autumn.

The Genoa Conference was a matter of recognizing the Soviet Union and oppressing the Soviet Union had to recognize the foreign debts owed by Tsarist Russia. As a result, the Russians and Hans recognized each other off the court and exempted each other from foreign debts, entering the Soviet-German honeymoon period.

The Geneia Conference was a meeting held by central banks in which the gold standard was jointly held by central banks. The result was to alleviate the current dilemma and plant the seeds of the Great Depression in the future.

So does our Master Yuan have a way to solve these problems?

Yes, so there is nothing. It’s all written in history books, and it’s a one-time and for all…

“Pickup Pika Pika Pika…”

"Master ball is ready. The alias is lost! Wouldn't it be better for me to push history to develop in the 'right direction'?"
Chapter completed!