Chapter 748 Officials need to learn statistics

There is a special gun test site behind the artillery workshop, which is very convenient. Moreover, the testing methods are complete and cannot be compared with other places. When Liu Ziyu's gun was pulled here, he was arranged in the gun position.

In fact, it doesn't cost much to try a cannon. It's nothing more than gunpowder, shells, and shells that can be recycled and recasted. The problem is that the artillery factory has already tried it, so there is no need to try it again. Not only does it test the cannon, but when the factory makes the cannon, it also needs to check many items such as sealing, denseness, casting defects, etc. The inspection of these items is not understood by the generals who come to buy the cannon, and they cannot be asked to see them when the cannon is tested. Therefore, the people in the factory hate it.

In the Henan Prefecture Office, in the official hall of Wang Xiaoli, Chen Qiudao, Chen Yuyi, Wang Ruohai and Wang Yan gathered together. Wang Xiaoliu in the middle put down the official document and said, "There is nothing today. Let's talk about the problem of emptiness. Actually, I am not mature in thinking about this problem, so I have always avoided it. But now it seems that it is really impossible not to talk about it. For our officials and officers, if we don't explain this problem clearly, many tasks will be difficult to do."

After saying that, he ordered the soldiers to serve tea for everyone and took a sip.

Putting down the teacup, Wang Xiaoliu said: "In recent days, some officials have supplemented it, and the previous officials have also raised some of it. How to govern has become a big problem. I advocate that officials should learn some cases and learn from other people's governance. However, our time is too short and the institutions are simple, and the number of cases is really not enough. The case thing takes a long time and there are many cases to facilitate learning. If there are fewer ones, what is the difference compared to the regulations?"

Chen Qiudao said: "What's the solution? I can only learn slowly and accumulate slowly."

Wang Xiaoli sighed: "But officials can't wait. They have to do political work now and come up with solutions."

Wang Ruohai said: "If it really doesn't work, we will strengthen the regulations first and let officials do their business in accordance with the regulations."

Wang Xiaoliu said: "This is also a way. There are two ways to govern. One is to follow the regulations, orders, and instructions of superiors. As long as the instructions of superiors are not violated, it is not wrong. The other method is to decide what to do based on the local situation. Even if there is an order from superiors, officials can implement it or not implement it according to the actual situation. The former method is to be the official; the latter method is to be the official. But in fact, how can the official distinguish between the official? Sometimes the official has to do the official's affairs, and sometimes the official also has to do the official's affairs. But for the matters handled by the official, everything is to be the regulations, which is not good. The ideal situation should be that when there are too few cases, the superiors will be instructed by the superiors; when the cases increase, the instructions will be secretly reduced. But ideals are ideals, and after all, they are not reality."

Speaking of this, Wang Xiaoli picked up a few official documents and flipped them out casually. He said, "But now, the officials below are increasingly treating what I say as regulations. Among the official documents from these prefectures and counties, Xuanfu said it at all, or Xuanfu did this. How can this be done?"

Chen Qiudao said: "This is also what officials did when they tried to understand Xuanfu's meaning. After a long time, they would naturally understand."

Wang Xiaoli shook his head: "Staff, don't lie to me! After a long time, they will only try to guess my thoughts and try to cater to me. After a long time, they will gradually understand and just deceive the ghosts! This momentum must be stopped and cannot be allowed to grow!"

Chen Qiudao lowered his head and stopped talking.

In fact, many times, Chen Qiudao didn't know what Wang Xiaolie meant. It was just that after a long time, he gradually understood what Wang Xiaolie wanted to express. Although this meaning made Chen Qiudao say, he couldn't explain it clearly.

Why didn’t Wang Xiaolie know that his subordinates are like this? Whether it is Chen Qiudao, Chen Yuyi, or Wang Ruohai, they cannot fully understand what they mean. They just have been together for a long time, and although they don’t understand, they are very different, and they know what to do.

This is great. How can you find like-minded people all at once? You can only rely on your own strength to slowly transform the society. In the process of transforming the society, new talents will gradually grow. Only these new talents can slowly get closer to Wang Xiaoli's thoughts.

This does not mean that Wang Xiaolie is so smart and can see through everything. Instead, it means that Wang Xiaolie wants to transform the society's ideas, pull down the destiny of the high and combine it with the people. Wang Xiaolie only knows that it is right to do this, but does not know what to do. How to do it requires the practice of the people.

Wang Xiaolei said: "I have always said that officials should learn some statistics, understand the principles of statistics, and learn to use statistics to manage society. However, after so long, there are not many officials who really listened to it. To solve the problem that officials follow, the most fundamental thing is to really manage society."

Speaking of this, Wang Xiaolie took a sip of tea and sorted out his thoughts.

Putting down the water cup, Wang Xiaoliu said: "Our world is the world of statistics. Or, at this stage, it is the world of statistics. Everything we encounter is based on statistics. Instead of saying that because of the limited facts we have mastered, we have to use statistical methods. Statistics is not a method, but a real world. Of course, this does not mean that only statistics can describe our world, but that the world described by statistics is closer to the real world. Other methods can also describe the real world compared to statistics."

This was very difficult to say, and Wang Xiaolie didn't know that the three of them could understand it.

In fact, when these words were said, Chen Qiudao and the other two looked at each other, not knowing what Wang Xiaolie was saying.

Civilization always carries its own mark. People often ignore this mark. They only occasionally look back at the path they have walked, but they find that the mark has always been there and never disappeared. This mark that never disappears can only be broken through again and again, even if it is beyond recognition.

Only by understanding this can we understand why European civilization is so attached to the law of cause and effect, and why we think that everything is arranged. Because the formation of European civilization is inseparable from religion. Don’t be attached to whether someone is God or who is the son of God, but understand that the core is that God created everything. When God stretches out his hand and clicks it lightly, everything is already arranged.

So Newton's main energy in his life was to study theology. Einstein would say that God would not roll dice, and quantum theory would be so incomprehensible. This is the imprint of European civilization, and even science, it also carries their unique imprint.

If industrialization occurred first in China and science was the earliest breakthrough for the Chinese, would the path of science be the same? Of course not. The more similar the stage at the beginning, the more different it will be to the later stage, until it is beyond recognition from the scientific face we are familiar with.

We always believe that the world is known in this way, that it should be understood in this way, and the path of science is the only one. In fact, of course it is not like this. There are many ways to be known in the world, and there are many different aspects. It is even surprising that a different way of understanding it.

Many people forget that the Big Bang is just a hypothesis, and the theory of the universe is just a guess, and it is a theory established under existing conditions. In fact, humans are not clear about how the Milky Way operates, how to gather such a huge number of stars, and how to maintain their current state of motion.

In fact, many human machines use computers to realize intelligence, and even imagine the battle between robots and humans. However, in the field of computers, a real random number cannot be created, which simulates a real random process, and cannot truly simulate the real world.

The real world conforms to the laws of statistics. Any accurate calculation does not conform to the real world. In other words, according to the current method of human beings to understand the world, only statistics can be more consistent.

If Wang Xiaoli asked Wang Xiaoli to write a science fiction novel about the future, there are all kinds of possibilities. Demons, demons, ghosts, monsters, gods, and heavenly courts, and the underworld is even more common. The only impossible thing is spacecraft colonization. It is precisely because this is the most likely to appear based on the current technical route, which is precisely the most unlikely in reality.

What is the future like? Only God knows.

This is just like this in the most scientific field of natural sciences. How can it be an exception in the most unscientific field of humanities? In fact, traveling back to ancient times, a lot of knowledge from previous lives was useful, and the most useless one was exactly the historical direction you thought you knew.

Looking at the expressions of the three people, Wang Xiaoliu said: "Officials should know how to view the world from a statistical perspective, and also know how to manage the world with statistical knowledge. Many things in our world can be manifested as statistical laws. But these laws change over time. For example, humans like to bet, but how easy is it to bet? If this is expressed as a curve, if the management is strict, it may be high and steep, and if the management is loose, it may be smooth. Can it be said that how much humans like to bet is directly related to whether they are strict or not? I am afraid that it is not like this. If the management is too strict, all the people who are really good at bet may be removed, and it will be smooth. If the management is too loose, the people who are good at bet may be polite and become tall and steep. At the beginning, it is normal for everyone to do what to do, but you should know that there is such a thing. Over time, relying on everyone's strength to slowly accumulate wisdom and experience."

Wang Ruohai nodded and said, "We understand what Xuanfu means and will work hard."

Wang Xiaoli sighed: "This world is so strange. Some methods are sometimes simple and effective, and they work. But after this specific period of time, they become unsatisfied. For example, now, we directly use orders to ask the officials below to do things, which is the most effective. But after a while, it will not work. When we want to change our practice, we find that the officials below have developed inertia and must give orders from above. We are just lacking officials now, and political affairs are not so urgent. It is better not to use this short-sighted method."

Chen Qiudao and the other three nodded.

Although the three people who said Wang Xiaoliu did not understand, they could always understand what Wang Xiaoliu meant. Over the years, this has been done so much. What does it matter if you don’t understand? As long as what Wang Xiaoliu said can match the facts and be effective.

(Maybe I am the brain fog among the sequelae of the new crown. It has not been better after so many days. Until now, when I am typing, my brain is getting dizzy and rising. The updates are only like this, I hope everyone understands it. I don’t know when this sequelae will be better. In short, just write some. Whether you can subscribe or not depends on your mood. There is no need to force it.)
Chapter completed!